When it comes to investing in Altria Group (NYSE: MO), the spotlight often falls on its attractive dividend yield, currently hovering around 8%. This is understandably appealing for dividend-seeking investors who are drawn to the allure of a steadily increasing payout. However, there’s a pressing concern looming beneath the surface: the core business of Altria is experiencing a protracted decline.
Cigarettes remain the cornerstone of Altria’s operations. In the first half of 2024, the company reported approximately $11.8 billion in total revenue, with a staggering $10.4 billion—88% of its revenue—coming from smokeable products. While the company does dabble in a range of offerings, including cigars, it’s crucial to note that over 97% of the volume generated in this sector is derived from cigarettes. The numbers tell a sobering story; cigarette volumes plummeted by 11.5% in the first half of 2024—a continuation of a downward trend that has plagued the company in recent years. For example, volumes declined by 9.9% in 2023 and 9.7% in 2022, demonstrating a clear pattern of erosion in this vital segment.
The critical question arises: how has Altria, with its dwindling cigarette sales, managed to sustain and even grow its dividend? The answer lies in the consumer behavior associated with smoking. Smokers exhibit a strong brand loyalty, enabling Altria to consistently raise prices to compensate for declining sales volumes. This strategy has worked thus far, but it’s important to recognize that there might be a tipping point. Over-reliance on price increases could eventually backfire, especially given that only about 4% of the cigarettes Altria sells are in the discount category. This heavy dependence on premium cigarette sales further amplifies the company’s vulnerability, particularly when the competition from alternative smoking products intensifies.
At the heart of Altria’s business is its association with the Marlboro brand, which controls an impressive 42% market share in the U.S. cigarette market. While this dominance might seem advantageous, it also highlights the risks of being overly reliant on a single product line in a declining market. With the growth of cheaper alternatives and illicit e-vapor products posing a significant challenge, Altria’s premium market focus could become a liability.
In response to these challenges, Altria is striving to diversify beyond its traditional cigarette business. After several missteps, including investments in Juul and a marijuana venture, the company is now betting on the success of its recent acquisition of NJOY, a vaping brand. So far, the results have been promising; NJOY’s shipment volumes surged by 14.7% in the second quarter of 2024, with device shipments skyrocketing by 80%. However, even with this rapid growth, NJOY’s revenue accounted for a mere $22 million in the first half of 2024—a drop in the bucket compared to Altria’s nearly $11.8 billion in total revenue.
As the nicotine market evolves, Altria faces a precarious balancing act. Consumer sentiment can shift suddenly, and there comes a limit to how many price hikes smokers will tolerate. The growing availability of budget-friendly cigarettes and alternatives presents a formidable challenge. Furthermore, any decrease in Marlboro’s market share could significantly impact Altria’s overall financial health.
For potential investors contemplating a $1,000 investment in Altria, it’s essential to approach with caution. Recent analyses suggest looking elsewhere for investment opportunities. The Motley Fool has identified several high-potential stocks that outperform Altria, underscoring the need for a strategic rethink.
In summary, while Altria Group’s hefty dividend might initially catch your eye, the sustained decline in its core business raises red flags. The heavy reliance on a single product line, the premium pricing strategy, and the competition from low-cost alternatives underscore the need for careful consideration before diving into this stock. Adapting to changing market dynamics will not be an easy feat for Altria, making it critical for investors to stay informed and vigilant.