BEIJING (Reuters) – In a significant policy shift, China has announced plans to substantially increase government debt issuance as part of a broader strategy to invigorate its struggling economy. During a recent press conference, Finance Minister Lan Foan indicated that this move aims to provide critical subsidies to low-income households, bolster the ailing property market, and shore up the capital of state-owned banks.
While specific figures related to the fiscal stimulus were not disclosed, Lan emphasized that the government has substantial latitude to expand its debt capacity. “We still have considerable room to issue more debt,” he remarked, as the country grapples with deflationary challenges stemming from a significant downturn in the property market and declining consumer confidence. These issues have revealed China’s vulnerability, particularly its heavy dependence on exports amidst rising global tensions.
Recent economic indicators have largely underperformed expectations, stirring concerns that the government’s ambitious goal of around 5% growth for this year could be jeopardized. Observers are wary about the looming possibility of a more profound, long-term economic slowdown. Anticipation is high for the upcoming release of September’s economic data, which is likely to reflect further weaknesses in key areas.
Despite these challenges, Zheng Shanjie, the head of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), expressed optimism, asserting confidence that the growth target can still be met. Analysts have closely monitored China’s fiscal strategies after a recent Politburo meeting, which underscored an urgent need to address escalating economic pressures.
Chinese equity markets initially rallied after the Politburo’s meeting, soaring by 25% in a matter of days. However, these gains have since simmered as investors await clearer details about the government’s impending spending plans.
Sources reveal that China is poised to issue around 2 trillion yuan (approximately $284 billion) in special sovereign bonds this year, which would constitute a fresh wave of fiscal stimulus. Half of this funding is anticipated to be allocated to local governments for managing their debt dilemmas, while the remainder is set to subsidize consumer purchases on essential goods and provide monthly financial support to families with two or more children.
Furthermore, reports suggest that the central government may inject up to 1 trillion yuan in capital into its leading state banks. This move would enhance these banks’ capacity to drive economic recovery through increased lending, primarily by underwriting new sovereign bonds.
Typically, any new debt issuance in China must receive formal approval from the National People’s Congress, expected to convene soon. The central bank has recently unveiled aggressive monetary policies aimed at rejuvenating the economy, notably introducing measures to revive the beleaguered property sector, such as lowering mortgage rates.
While these initiatives have momentarily buoyed Chinese stock prices, many analysts argue that more systemic changes are essential. Beijing needs to tackle deep-rooted issues, such as stimulating domestic consumption and reducing its reliance on infrastructure-driven investments fueled by debt. The Chinese economy remains heavily skewed towards investment, leaving household consumption at a concerningly low level—about 40% of GDP, significantly trailing behind the global average.
In another contributing factor to the faltering economic landscape, a recent analysis by recruiting platform Zhaopin pointed out that the average salaries offered in major urban areas fell by 2.5% in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter. Amid these economic upheavals, corporate giants like Swedish furniture retailer IKEA have publicly urged the Chinese government to enact additional stimulus measures.
As China charts its path forward, the focus will undoubtedly remain on striking a balance between stimulating growth and addressing the underlying economic vulnerabilities that have surfaced in recent years.