Navigating Earnings Season: Why Netflix is a Must-Buy and Walgreens is a Cautionary Sell

U.S. stock markets experienced a remarkable finish on Friday, marking the completion of their fifth consecutive winning week. Investors absorbed the first wave of third-quarter earnings while continuing to evaluate the Federal Reserve’s interest rate strategies for the upcoming months. For the week, the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively, achieving new all-time highs, while the Nasdaq Composite added another 1.1%.

Looking ahead, this holiday-shortened week, with the stock market closed on Monday in observance of Columbus Day, is packed with important economic indicators and corporate earnings reports. Key to watch will be Thursday’s U.S. retail sales figures for September, where economists anticipate a 0.3% increase following a modest 0.1% rise the previous month. Additionally, a host of Federal Reserve officials, including Neel Kashkari, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly, and Adriana Kugler, will deliver public addresses, offering insights into future monetary policy.

Investors are positioning themselves based on the current market sentiment, with a striking 86% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut during the Fed’s November 7 meeting, as reported by Investing.com’s Fed Monitor Tool.

As earnings season heats up, this week will feature reports from prominent companies such as Netflix, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Walgreens Boots Alliance. As the market reacts to these earnings announcements, let’s delve into one stock to buy and another to sell for the week starting October 14 through October 18.

Netflix is poised for a bullish week ahead. The streaming titan is expected to announce impressive profit and subscriber growth in its upcoming third-quarter report. Scheduled to release earnings after the market closes on Thursday, October 17, Netflix is anticipated to report earnings per share (EPS) of $4.53, a staggering 37% increase from $3.11 in the same period last year. Revenue is projected to climb to $9.76 billion, representing a 14.3% year-over-year increase. This would mark a new sales record in the company’s history, fueled by consumer interest in its lower-cost ad-supported tier and a successful crackdown on password sharing.

Analysts are showing heightened confidence, revising profit estimates for Netflix upwards 29 times in the past 90 days, with only a couple of downward revisions. The options market suggests a potential stock movement of about 7.9% following the earnings report, highlighting the volatility expected around this major announcement.

On the downside, Walgreens Boots Alliance is expected to struggle as it prepares to disclose its fiscal fourth-quarter results before the market opens on Tuesday at 7:00 AM ET. The company has faced considerable challenges, leading analysts to predict a stark decline in profits; EPS is forecasted to drop to $0.36 from $0.67 in the previous year. Furthermore, revenue growth is projected to be minimal at just 0.4% year-over-year, reflecting the headwinds of increased operational costs and reduced consumer spending.

After previously plummeting nearly 22.7% post-earnings in June, Walgreens faces similar market pressure this time around, with traders pricing in a volatility swing of around 7.5% following their report.

As investors navigate this dynamic market landscape, the next few days will be critical in determining the path ahead for these stocks. With Netflix’s strong growth potential juxtaposed against Walgreens’ struggles in a tough retail climate, savvy market players should be ready to adjust their strategies accordingly.

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As market conditions evolve, staying informed and agile will be key to navigating both challenges and opportunities in the days ahead.